Citing a resilient economy and increasing if scattershot demand, the Global Business Travel Association projects 2024 global business travel spending to exceed 2019 figures, the first year since the Covid-19 outbreak began that would exceed pre-pandemic levels, the association announced Monday.
GBTA in its annual Business Travel Index Outlook projects 2024 global business travel spending would reach $1.484 trillion, higher than the $1.43 trillion of 2019 and about 11.1 percent higher than the 2023 total of $1.336 trillion. The association projects steady increases in spending through 2028, when it forecasts spending will crack $2 trillion.
"The overall outlook for this year looks very positive, and for the next five years it's a strong one for business travel spend," GBTA CEO Suzanne Neufang said Monday in Atlanta during the association's annual convention.
The 2024 projection is less than the $1.517 trillion projected by GBTA last year, after its 2023 forecast of $1.357 trillion overestimated the actual result. GBTA in the outlook cited "a confluence of factors" for the lower 2023 figure, "including inflation concerns, regional conflicts, and slow travel rebounds in China and other key markets."
The 2024 projection, Neufang noted, also isn't in constant currency and doesn't take inflation into account. In fact, the outlook includes inflation-adjusted figures using real business travel spending from a 2000 baseline, which shows that adjusted 2019 spending was $963 billion with projected 2024 spending of $814 billion. Only by 2027 is inflation-adjusted spending against the 2000 baseline forecast to reach 2019 levels.
"While the rate of recovery has been impressive, it is important to note these spending levels include the significant inflation witnessed across the globe over the past few years," GBTA wrote in the outlook. "When looking at real (inflation-adjusted) spending, we expect that spending levels will continue to lag pre-pandemic highs over the coming years (implying that volumes will remain below pre-pandemic levels as well)," it continued, with the parentheticals the association's.
Still, GBTA projects steady growth throughout the forecast period, though settling in the single-digit percentage range by 2026. "As we would expect after such a deep crisis followed by extraordinary recovery, we will continue to gradually moderate and stabilize as growth comes back to normal," Neufang said Monday.
GBTA noted the timing and strength of the recovery continues to vary by region, with 2023 spending growth accelerating in the Asia-Pacific region while cooling in Western Europe, as well as by industry, with business travel spending by the financial and insurance as well as the professional services sectors projected to significantly outpace that of the retail and agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors through 2028.
Neufang cited several possible challenges to forecast spending growth, including continued inflation, worsening geopolitical situations, a persistent slower recovery in China and an acceleration of sustainability mandates.